Is it only a coincidence that the Pac-12 and Big 12 in the first two years of the College Football Playoff (CFP) have featured the fewest amount of teams and probably will be on the outside looking in again this season?
Or is time for those conferences and the NCAA and Power 5 as a whole to come to a common ground about how each of them are constructed, mostly in terms of scheduling?
In the first two years of the CFP, the eight teams were comprised of two each from the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC while the Pac-12 and Big 12 had only one each – Oregon in 2014 and Oklahoma in 2015.
The College Football Playoff rankings that were released Tuesday night do not have a team from either conference in the top four qualifying spots for the playoff. The top four are Alabama (of the SEC), Clemson (ACC), Michigan (Big Ten) and surprise team Texas A&M (SEC) with a 7-1 record.
Washington of the Pac-12 is at No. 5 with an 8-0 record that includes two routs of traditional conference powers Oregon and Stanford. Both programs have struggled this season, however, which adversely affects the Huskies’ College Football Playoff outlook.
The Big 12’s top team in the rankings is Oklahoma, all the way down at No. 14 at 6-2. LSU of the SEC and with a 5-2 record, ranks ahead of the Sooners at No. 13 despite undergoing a coaching change this season with Les Miles fired four games into the season.
Chances are, the Pac-12 and Big 12 will be shut out again from the CFP. That will mean in the first three years of the College Football Playoff , each conference will have only 8.3 percent of the representation out of 12 teams.
The only way Washington will get in, as evidenced by its No. 5 ranking behind Texas A&M, is that the Huskies run the table and finish 13-0 with a victory in the Pac-12 title game. Anything short of that, even only one loss, and the Huskies’ CFP hopes are likely dashed because of their weak non-conference schedule and the struggles of Oregon and Stanford.
Oklahoma’s two losses work against the Sooners the most while Washington is affected by playing Rutgers, Portland State and Idaho in a weak nonconference portion of its schedule.
Baylor and West Virginia of the Big 12 are each 6-1 but are ranked No. 17 and No. 20, respectively, by the College Football Playoff committee. Baylor played Northwestern State, SMU, and Rice in its nonconference portion of the schedule. West Virginia’s non-conference slate was bolder with Missouri and BYU included along with Youngstown State.
According to Jeff Sagarin, Baylor’s strength of schedule is No. 97 out of 128 FBS teams. West Virginia’s schedule rating is a respectable No. 31 but the Mountaineers are 0-1 against top 30 teams (a loss to Oklahoma State, which is No. 18 in the CFP rankings at 6-2).
The trend of Pac-12 and Big 12 exclusion from the College Football Playoff should be disturbing to the NCAA and the Power 5. It should not be viewed as a coincidence.
The fact that Baylor and TCU were left out of the first CFP in 2014 with 11-1 regular-season records was an ominous sign for the Big 12, most of it pertaining to out-of-conference scheduling. Ohio State got in instead as the No. 4 team with an 11-1 record as the Big Ten champs and went on to win the national title.
Working against Washington in addition to its weak non-conference slate:
– Not only are Stanford and Oregon down but traditional powers USC and UCLA have struggled at different parts of the season, damaging the perception of Pac-12 football in general.
– Many of the Huskies’ games are late Saturday night kickoffs, which means the games end in the wee morning hours on the East coast. That affects their visibility and the way people care about their standing. Perhaps more of an outcry from the East coast media would happen if they actually got to see Washington play more. As it is, the complaining of the Huskies’ No. 5 CFP ranking is coming mostly from the West coast media.
Working against the Big 12:
– Oklahoma and Texas are the conference’s identifiable powers and they have a combined 10-6 record this season. The Longhorns have been irrelevant since going 13-1 in 2009. Baylor is embroiled with off-the-field matters that cost coach Art Briles his job. TCU is down (4-4) after being in the national spotlight in recent years. Because of this, the Big 12 is viewed as less potent and less deserving of a College Football Playoff team.
– No conference championship game this season only weakens the Big 12’s stance even if Oklahoma was unbeaten to this point. The College Football Playoff committee made it clear in 2014 that the conference needs a title game to improve its chances for a bid because representatives of the other Power 5 leagues must play in one. The Big 12 will have one next season pitting the No. 1 and 2 teams against each other in a 10-team league without divisions. Time will tell if that setup will adversely affect the conference’s chance for a CFP team.
The remedies for these situations should be an NCAA and Power 5 matter, not just confined to these conferences because an unleveled playing field is becoming apparent nationwide with the College Football Playoff brackets of 2014 and 2015 and the first rankings this season.
Potential solutions:
– Having four super conferences with a balanced revolving scheduling system similar to the NFL.
– Expanding the field to eight teams with each of the Power 5 conference champions guaranteed an automatic bid.
– Featuring more non-conference games between Power 5 teams past the midway point of the season to give the College Football Playoff committee a better gauge of a team’s strength. Can you imagine a Washington vs. Florida State game this weekend? Or Alabama playing Nebraska? The marquee games as season openers are a joke and must be addressed. Those early-season games are not a fair evaluation of a team’s strength with so much changing during the course of the season.
The conferences took the necessary step of creating the College Football Playoff in 2014. The work to improve the system is far from over. If it is not fixed, not all conferences will feel they are part of the process. As long as that happens, crowning a true champion will always be questionable.
This article was updated on 11/3/2016 for clarification.
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